Bowtie analysis template — Aviation SMS

Aviation SMS bowtie example: loss of separation in controlled airspace

A complete, worked bowtie analysis example: 5 threats, 4 consequences, and 21 controls — 9 of them critical — around the top event, each carrying effectiveness, degradation factors, and a performance standard.

Open it read-only in the real editor → No sign-in required.

Aviation SMS bowtie diagram: threats and preventive controls to the left, loss of separation in controlled airspace in the centre, consequences and recovery controls to the right.

Bowtie Risk Engine writes barriers as controls and the top event as the risk — same method, stricter bookkeeping.

The scenario

Loss of Separation in Controlled Airspace

A controller-and-cockpit bowtie for the unsafe event every ANSP and operator plans against: two aircraft closer than separation minima. Threats span human performance, equipment, weather, and coordination; recovery leans on TCAS and trained escape manoeuvres.

Area. Approach / terminal manoeuvring area, controlled airspace under ATC

Hazard. Two aircraft penetrating each other's separation minima, leading to mid-air collision risk and TCAS resolution advisories

Activity. Routine IFR operations, terminal sequencing, and approach/departure flows

Top event. Loss of Separation in Controlled Airspace — the moment control of the hazard is lost, at the knot of the bowtie.

Left side of the bowtie

Threats and preventive controls

Maps to ICAO Doc 9859 safety-management expectations for hazard identification and risk control.

Preventive controls (barriers)5 threats · 12 controls
Threat Control Criticality Effectiveness
ATC clearance error or deviationController issues a clearance that erodes separation, or an aircraft deviates from a correct clearance (level bust, heading drift, missed level-off). Short-Term Conflict Alert (STCA) Critical High
Pilot read-back / hear-back Critical Medium
Medium-Term Conflict Detection (MTCD) Standard Medium
Controller training and currency Standard Medium
Pilot deviation from clearanceLevel bust, track deviation, or unauthorised altitude change due to autopilot mis-set, selected-altitude error, or workload-driven mistake. Altitude alerter and FMS callouts Standard High
Crew Resource Management (CRM) cross-check Critical High
Surveillance / communication equipment failureRadar coverage loss, transponder failure, or VHF blocking causing controller to lose situational awareness. Redundant radar coverage and ADS-B Critical High
Procedural separation fallback Critical High
Severe weather causing reroute or holdingConvective weather forces unexpected vectoring, holding, or runway changes that compress sequencing and erode separation. Strategic flow management Standard High
On-board weather radar / EFB Standard High
Sector-handover or coordination failureLost flight strip, missed coordination call, or incomplete handover between sectors leading to a controller acting on stale information. Electronic flight strips with mandatory acknowledge Standard Medium
Standardised handover checklist Standard High
Right side of the bowtie

Consequences and recovery controls

If the top event happens anyway, these are the controls that limit how bad it gets.

Recovery controls (barriers)4 consequences · 9 controls
Consequence Control Criticality Effectiveness
TCAS Resolution Advisory (RA)Aircraft TCAS issues an RA, requiring pilots to manoeuvre and report to ATC; often coincident with separation loss. TCAS II 7.1 Critical High
Pilot RA-compliance training Standard Medium
Controller RA acknowledgement procedure Standard High
Airprox / safety-event reportReportable proximity event triggering investigation, regulatory review, and possible operational restrictions. Just-culture reporting environment Critical High
Independent safety investigation Standard High
Mid-air collisionCatastrophic outcome with hull losses and fatalities. TCAS II 7.1 (final-line) Critical High
See-and-avoid (visual) Critical Medium
Passenger injury from sudden manoeuvreCabin injuries (unsecured passengers, crew, or galley equipment) during avoidance manoeuvre. Seatbelt sign discipline Standard High
Cabin-secure procedure Standard High
Degradation factors (escalation factors)What defeats a control — and what defends it
Control Degradation factor Degradation control
Short-Term Conflict Alert (STCA) Degraded radar or Mode-C data quality Routine Mode-C verification and surveillance-performance monitoring
Pilot read-back / hear-back High RT frequency loading and congestion Sectorisation and capacity management
Redundant radar coverage and ADS-B Single surveillance source over a busy sector Documented coverage gaps and annual safety-case review
Inside one control

Short-Term Conflict Alert (STCA)

Every control in this template carries this level of detail — this is one of the critical ones.

What it does. Ground-based predictive alert in the radar system warning of imminent loss of separation; nuisance-rate kept under 5%.

Performance standard — objective. Give controllers a timely, reliable warning of an imminent loss of separation so a corrective instruction can be issued before minima are breached.

A verification criterion. Alerts are generated with enough look-ahead time (target ≥ 40 s) for the controller to intervene before separation minima are infringed.

How it erodes. Surveillance latency, degraded tracking, or a look-ahead parameter left un-retuned after an airspace or route change shortens effective warning time; tightening the look-ahead to suppress false alerts can quietly push it below the 40 s target.

Questions about this template

Is this bowtie example free to use?

Yes. Open it read-only in the real editor with no sign-in and read every control in full. To adapt it to your own operation, start the free 3-month trial — full editor and register, work email, no credit card.

What does the template include?

5 threats, 4 consequences, and 21 controls (barriers) around the top event, plus 3 degradation factors with their own controls, and a performance standard on every control. The control register and audit-ready PDF are generated from the same model.

What standard or framework does it align with?

It is structured around ICAO Doc 9859 safety-management expectations: hazards, unsafe events, and the barriers your SMS claims. Incidents can be mapped back onto the same threats and controls.

Can I export it?

Yes — PNG and SVG for slides and reports, JSON for version control, and a multi-page PDF containing the control registers, degradation factors, and performance standards. Trial exports are brand-marked.

Open this bowtie in the editor.

Read every control, criterion, and degradation factor in the live model — then adapt it to your own operation on the free 3-month trial.

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